The proposed site of the Lot J development in 2019.

First, I would just say this is a big deal for downtown. There hasn’t been a massive project, a transformational project, and in many, many years — decades, frankly. A live entertainment district, three additional vertical towers, which are residential, commercial, and hotel. It’s a game changer.

–Mayor Lenny Curry in an August 5 interview with WJCT.

Lot J is a proposed $450 million mixed-use development adjacent to TIAA Bank Field, which is roughly a little over a mile away from the traditional pedestrian friendly core of Downtown Jacksonville. The mixed-use dining and entertainment project is planned to include a massive parking garage, a 300-unit residential tower, a 200-room boutique hotel, an office building and an outdoor Live! arena. The long term vision is for the development to serve as the first phase of a $2.5 billion mixed-use node around the stadium that will be incrementally built as the market allows. However, after decades of game changing projects that ultimately fail to change the game, residents should take local politicians’ claims about “game changing” downtown revitalization projects with a grain of salt. Especially when more than $200 million in hard public cash is needed to make it happen.

WJCT: The city is providing more than half (52%) of the $450 million for this development - one of the biggest investments in any project. So, why do you think developing Lot J is so important?

Lenny Curry: Yeah, it’s a $450 million project. There’s $200 something million in… Well, it’s interesting. So if you say over $200 million in incentives, you got to really break this out. Because part of it is the Live Entertainment piece the city will own. We will own that. We will pay for half of that and our partners, the Jaguars, will pay for half, just like the amphitheater and will lease that back to them. And so the other pieces are incentives that will go to private development, if you will.

Look, downtown has been talk, talk, talk for years, while other cities have realized their downtowns and they’re booming. People are living there and they’re working there and they’re playing there. It’s important that we have residential, commercial, retail, and that’s what this does.

–WJCT interview

Downtown Jacksonville’s history is full of “game changing” ideas that fail to live up to unrealistic expectations when one really digs into the numbers.

For those who have been around awhile, other “game changers” in downtown’s 60 continuous years of failed revitalization schemes include turning the riverfront into a district of surface parking lots, the JTA Skyway, the Jacksonville Landing, building an isolated convention center, destroying LaVilla, and paving over Hemming Park. Considering the current fiasco brewing at the Jacksonville Landing, where the city will spend nearly $25 million to turn the building into a field (which wags have dubbed “Lenny’s Lawn”), not to mention the amount of wasted downtown commercial space already in the city’s possession, it’s unclear why the city should want to spend $50 million to build a smaller version of the Landing a mile away from the Downtown core. But let’s focus on the second half of the quote above:

Look, downtown has been talk, talk, talk for years, while other cities have realized their downtowns and they’re booming. People are living there and they’re working there and they’re playing there. It’s important that we have residential, commercial, retail, and that’s what this does.

The mayor is certainly right. There has been a lot of local talk, with little action. For all the glittery renderings of dreamy proposals being flashed in local newspapers, in reality it’s 2019 and one still struggles to find a cup of coffee on a weekday night or weekend. Other downtowns across the country are booming and have been for years. A few we’ve covered in recent months include Detroit, Pensacola, West Palm Beach, and Orlando.

When Lot J is complete, it is anticipated that it will help spur additional development at Metropolitan Park towards the Hart Bridge in upcoming decades. It is also anticipated that an additional undetermined hundreds of millions in public subsidies will be required as well for future phases.

It’s very important that Downtown Jacksonville attract more residential, commercial and retail uses. It is also correct that Lot J is designed to be a mixed-use development. However, being a mile east of the city’s historic downtown, will it be the “game changer” for downtown? And is it worth the $233.3 million in public subsidies that are required?

To answer those questions, we first have to look at the other projects sprouting up within the Downtown core - what impact will they have, and what are their costs? How do they stack up against the Lot J proposal? With that in mind, a brief look at the statistics and location of proposed Lot J investment exposes an interesting set of numbers - and shows us where the real “game changer” may already be happening in Downtown Jacksonville.

A 128 key Hyatt Place hotel is one of several major infill and adaptive reuse projects already under construction or proposed in the historic downtown core area.